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2014 College Soccer: Breaking Down the “Power Six” Conference Tournaments

A look at the conference tournaments for the AAC, ACC, Big East, Big 10, Big 12, and SEC. The breakdown includes the results so far, potential upset candidates, which teams are in desperate need of win(s) to get into the NCAA tournament, and predictions on which teams will win their conference championships. Note — 1R = 1st round, QF = quarterfinal(s), SF = semifinal(s)

AAC

Preliminary rounds this past weekend at campus sites, semifinals on Friday at USF, and final on Sunday.

Tournament Bracket

  • 1R: #9 SMU defeated #8 Temple, 2-1
  • 1R: #7 East Carolina defeated #10 Houston, 3-1
  • QF 1: #1 UCF defeated #9 SMU, 4-0
  • QF 2: #4 UConn defeated #5 Tulsa, 1-0
  • QF 3: #7 East Carolina defeated #2 Memphis, 2-1 (OT)
  • QF 4: #3 USF defeated #6 Cincinnati, 3-2
  • SF 1: #4 UConn vs. #1 UCF
  • SF 2: #7 East Carolina vs. #3 USF

Predictions

Last year, all games of the Semifinal and Final round of the first ever AAC Conference Championship went to penalty kicks, a feat that won’t happen anytime soon. But the competition in the AAC, now solidified with 10 members after Rutgers and Louisville moved to the Big Ten and ACC respectively, has been pretty strong this season. We’ve already seen one surprise in this year’s tournament as East Carolina, currently holding a 12-7-1 record, upset second-seeded Memphis, 2-1, to create a wide open second semifinal between ECU and host South Florida. What we learned from last season’s tournament is to expect tight games from start to finish.

Upset Special

The UConn Huskies have had a roller coaster season, ranging from a 4-0 win against St. John’s to giving Florida State a 3-2 scare in nonconference play to drawing 0-0 on the road against 10th-seeded Houston in conference play. The Huskies, led by U.S. U-20 international Rachel Hill, defeated UCF, 1-0, in Orlando, snapping UCF’s 25-match unbeaten streak against conference opponents. In the rematch on Friday night, there’s a good chance that Hill and company could find themselves in strong position to make it two for two against the Knights.

ACC

Semifinal on Friday at Greensboro, N.C. and final on Sunday.

Tournament Bracket

  • SF 1: #4 Notre Dame vs. #1 Florida State
  • SF 2: #3 Virginia vs. #2 North Carolina

Predictions

Last year, in what was basically a miniature NCAA tournament with competitive matches during each round, the ACC held an eight-team, three-round tournament with the quarterfinals at campus sites and the semifinals and finals held in Cary, N.C. This year, the conference decided to shorten the tournament to four teams held at UNC-Greensboro despite 15 teams in the conference.

Florida State and North Carolina finished the season tied atop the standings but the Seminoles grabbed the number one seed and will face Notre Dame, a team they didn’t face during the regular season. In the other semifinal, Virginia will face North Carolina for the first time this season, making this tournament one with great intrigue. The Tar Heels received a surprising challenge from Syracuse this past weekend and will face a Cavaliers squad with Morgan Brian back in the fold after international duty (and who scored two goals this weekend against Pittsburgh). Expect Virginia to advance to face Florida State in the finals, as Dagny Brynjarsdottir and the rest of the Seminole front line should be able to find their way past a stingy Notre Dame midfield and into the finals for the second straight year.

Big East

Quarterfinals at higher-seeded sites on Tuesday, semifinals at St. John’s on Friday, and final on Sunday.

Tournament Bracket

  • QF 1: #6 Villanova vs. #3 St. John’s
  • QF 2: #5 Providence vs. #4 Marquette
  • SF 1: Winner of QF 1 vs. #2 Georgetown
  • SF 2: Winner of QF 2 vs. #1 DePaul

Predictions

The Big East was always going to have a logjam at the top for the two byes into the semifinal round, but not many would have predicted DePaul as the top seed. The Blue Demons have put together a wonderful regular season, going unbeaten with a 13-0-3 record, including quality wins against Nebraska on the road and an overtime win against conference foe Marquette, a side that DePaul could very well see in the semifinals. They did draw earlier in the season against Georgetown, who have also had a nice regular season and are coming off of an 8-0 thrashing of Seton Hall to close the season out. Expect these two sides to square off for the final in Queens on Sunday afternoon and potentially see the winner getting a seed in the NCAA tournament

Upset Special

St. John’s is at home the entire week, as they host Villanova in the quarterfinals and are the host school for the semifinals and final. The Red Storm are 5-2-1 at Belson Stadium this year and have already beaten Georgetown at home as well. If they get by Villanova, there’s a good chance St. John’s could duplicate the trick on Friday against the Hoyas.

Who Needs a Win to Boost their NCAA Tournament Resume

St. John’s also needs a couple wins in the Big East tournament to solidify its spot in the NCAA tournament. The Red Storm come into the week at 10-7-1 and had a rough start to the season, losing games to Army, Brown, and Dartmouth. But getting to the final should be enough for the tournament committee to select them for a tournament appearance.

Big Ten

Quarterfinals on Wednesday at Purdue, semifinals on Friday, and final on Sunday.

Tournament Bracket

  • QF 1: #5 Iowa vs. #4 Rutgers
  • QF 2: #8 Northwestern vs. #1 Penn State
  • SF 1: Winners of QF 1 and QF 2
  • QF 3: #7 Illinois vs. #2 Wisconsin
  • QF 4: #6 Minnesota vs. #3 Michigan
  • SF 2: Winners of QF 3 and QF 4

Predictions

The Big Ten had one of the crazier postseason tournaments last year as weather wreaked havoc during the quarterfinal round and seventh-seeded Iowa upset second-seeded Michigan in the quarterfinals and then third-seeded Penn State in the semifinals. Iowa will open the tournament this year against Rutgers, new to the Big Ten, but expect a little more standard fare through this tournament. The top seeds have proved too strong throughout the regular season with many peculiar results in the middle and bottom third of the table to set up this year’s tournament, including defending champion Nebraska’s failure to make the tournament.

Expect Penn State, which has been on a tear, to find its way to the championship match, especially with senior leader Raquel Rodriguez back on the pitch after helping Costa Rica earn its first Women’s World Cup berth a couple weeks ago.

Upset Specials

Illinois has had a strange season this year. After a reasonably strong start to the season, the Fighting Illini went 1-5-2 in their final eight matches to squeak into the conference tournament as a seven seed and need a win (or two) to get into the NCAA tournament. They face a familiar opponent in two-seed Wisconsin, a team they faced in Madison this past week and held to a scoreless draw. The lessons they learned in last week’s win, combined with the need to win a game this week to get into the tournament, should spur on Illinois to pick up a quarterfinal upset against Wisconsin.

Who Needs a Win to Boost their NCAA Tournament Resume

Outside of Illinois, keep an eye on Rutgers to play with a little more urgency this weekend. While Rutgers’ 12-4-1 record should have it in the NCAA tournament comfortably, a win or two this week could earn the Scarlet Knights a seed. They don’t have a whole lot of quality wins outside of their 1-0 win at Penn State and have lost three of their last four coming into the Big Ten championship, but if they can get another crack at Penn State in the semifinals and win, the Knights can be assured of a 3 or 4 seed in the Big Dance.

Big 12

Quarterfinals on Wednesday at Swope Soccer Park, KC, semifinals on Friday, and final on Friday.

Tournament Bracket

  • QF 1: #8 TCU vs. #1 West Virginia
  • QF 2: #5 Texas Tech vs. #4 Texas
  • SF 1: Winners of QF 1 and QF
  • QF 3: #7 Baylor vs. #2 Oklahoma State
  • QF 4: #6 Oklahoma vs. #3 Kansas
  • SF 2: Winners of QF 3 and QF 4

Predictions

Call it boring prediction, but it’ll be a rematch of last year’s Big 12 tournament final, with number one seed West Virginia facing off against two seed Oklahoma State once again. The Mountaineers will handle TCU pretty easily in the first round, and face a tough Texas Tech team in the semifinals. This could potentially be one of the most exciting game in any conference tournament, as West Virginia won the regular season matchup 4-2. There’s definitely potential for an upset, but I’m sticking with West Virginia. On the other side of the bracket, Oklahoma State should get past Baylor. I think they set up a semifinal against Oklahoma (more on that below) and take the Bedlam series for 2014, after the squads split the regular season series. That sets the stage for a West Virginia vs Oklahoma State final. I think things end the same way they did as 2014, with West Virginia taking the title. It would be a heck of a story for Oklahoma State to go from starting the season 0-7 to winning the Big XII tournament, but I think that a West Virginia squad on a 15 game unbeaten streak is tough to beat.

Upset Specials

Now if Texas Tech wasn’t nationally ranked, and understood to be a much better squad than their seed suggests, it would be the Red Raiders here. But the Sooners are flying a little more under the radar. Oklahoma has been stunningly inconsistent this season, at times looking like an NCAA tournament lock and at other times looking like the Big 12 six seed that they are. After starting the season with wins over Oklahoma State and Florida, the Sooners came out of the gate strong but began to falter once Big 12 play started. They were in danger of ending the season on a five-game losing streak, but notched a solid road win against Kansas to end the season. It was a physical match, and the quarterfinal rematch should be fun to watch. Kansas isn’t used to being a favorite in tournament play, and Oklahoma can take advantage of that for an upset win.

Who Needs a Win to Boost their NCAA Tournament Resume

Oklahoma fits right in this category as well, but the focus here is on Texas. The Longhorns need a bit of a run in the tournament to boost their resume and get themselves off the bubble. Grabbing a win against Texas Tech could be enough for Texas to squeak into the field of 64, but obviously a surprise run to the final wouldn’t hurt. Regular-season wins over Tech and Oklahoma and a tie against Arkansas are the best things this team has going for it, and they’re in need of more if they want to be playing late into November.

SEC

All games at Orange Beach, Ala. First round on Monday, quarterfinals on Wednesday, semifinals on Friday, and final on Sunday.

  • 1R A: #10 Tennessee vs. #7 Alabama
  • 1R B: #9 Arkansas vs #8 Georgia
  • QF 1: Winner 1R A vs. #2 Florida
  • QF 2: #6 Auburn vs. #3 Kentucky
  • SF 2: Winners of QF 1 and QF 2
  • QF 3: Winner 1R B vs. #1 Texas A&M
  • QF 4: #5 South Carolina vs. #4 Missouri
  • SF 1: Winners of QF 3 and QF 4

Predictions

If the first-round games are any indication, this edition of the SEC tournament is going to be a fun one. Let’s get to the predictions. Semifinal number one will have regular-season champs Texas A&M facing off against South Carolina. The Aggies shouldn’t have any problem dispatching what will be an exhausted Georgia team and South Carolina battles past a Mizzou squad that ended the season in a bit of a slump after cracking the Top 25. This semifinal could go either way, but South Carolina won’t keep up with A&M offensively. If it turns into a shootout, the Gamecocks don’t stand much of a chance. However, if they can find a goal early, their defense could hold on in a tense match. I just don’t see that happening.

Who will the Aggies face in their title defense? The same team they beat last time around, Florida. They will beat a Tennessee team with their solid passing game, and set up for a semifinal against Kentucky. The Wildcats have had a pleasant turnaround since their less than excellent start to the season, and while Auburn could play spoiler, Kentucky handles the game in a business-like manner. When it comes to the semifinals against Florida it’s a different story, as Kentucky hasn’t exactly had the most stellar history in SEC tournaments. Your SEC tournament champs are Florida. The Gators spoil the Aggies’ NCAA one-seed hopes and reclaim the title.

Upset Specials

South Carolina is much better than their five seed would suggest in this tournament. A solidly defensive squad with Sabrina D’Angelo in goal, the issue is in their sometimes toothless attack. SEC Freshman of the Year Savannah McCaskill has done a good job in her first season, and has shown she can score against top opponents, coming up big in the Gamecocks’ win against Florida with a brace. But you have to wonder if she can keep it up in her first postseason. If South Carolina can find a scoring groove, it can make a surprise run to the title.

Who Needs a Win to Boost their NCAA Tournament Resume

Good ol’ Rockytop is in need of quite the SEC tournament run. Their first-round win against Alabama at least keeps them in the conversation, but a win against Florida would do so much more. Really, all their resume has going for them at this point is a win against Missouri, close losses to Wisconsin and Virginia in a fairly strong nonconference schedule, and a tie with Auburn, but that’s really a stretch. The Volunteers are alive for another round, but need some life support if they want to even sniff the NCAA tournament.

 

[divider]Contributors[/divider]

Rachael Caldwell will be graduating from the University of Arkansas in 2015 with a degree in Broadcast Journalism and minors in Spanish and Business Management. Rachael played soccer from when she was three until her senior year of high school, where she was the captain of her state championship winning team. Rachael looks forward to writing more for Our Game Magazine and also writes about women’s soccer on her blog, rachaelfc.wordpress.com.

JJ Duke graduated from Rider University in New Jersey with a degree in Digital Media Studies. Although his playing days may have ended back in high school, he still prides himself on being a decent shot-stopper and an all-around fanatic of the beautiful game (fervent supporter of Manchester United and the founder of a Rider supporters group, the 206 Ultras). He was the Student General Manager at 107.7 FM The Bronc while at Rider and contributed to various local newspaper and Web sites in the Trenton, NJ, area of high school and collegiate sports including Tand Fish4Scores.com.