88 regular season matches are in the books and now the 2013 National Women’s Soccer League season is down to four teams. In the next two weeks, three closely contested matches will be played to determine the first-ever NWSL Champion. Two points (and some goal differential) separated Western New York, FC Kansas City, Portland and Sky Blue in the regular season standings and after a crazy turn of events in the final hours of the season, the playoff hosting scenarios took a complete 180 degree turn. And honestly, it didn’t surprise me at all, because each of these four teams have been very close in comparison and it was going to go down to the wire to separate them. So let’s takes a look at some key factors for each team in their semifinal match ups on Saturday. Then it’s time to reveal this column’s first of three All-NWSL XI’s.
Semifinal One: #3 seed Portland Thorns FC vs. #2 seed FC Kansas City. Saturday 1pm CT
Why Portland will win: Playing Their Game. The Thorns have been one of the most scrutinized teams throughout this season. And it would seem easy at times to have Portland be high up on the talking point boards around the league. They’ve drawn the most fans this season, have the most high profile players, a coach who has never had a professional head coaching gig before this season, etc. But the regular season is over and in a win or go home scenario, there needs to be a bubble over this team before going into their match. The players know that they can compete with and beat any of these teams and if they can get into that correct mindset before Saturday, they can be a tough out at this stage. Plus it helps that Portland is 6-2-3 on the road, the best road record of the playoff teams and if they want to win the title, it will most likely have to come on the road. So proving that they can get the job done on the road during the regular season can pay dividends in the playoffs.
What could hold Portland back: Falling Back to Old Lineups. I am a big believer that you don’t mess around with anything after a win, especially this close to the playoffs. And last weekend, while Seattle did out shoot the Thorns through the 90 minutes, that might have been the best match that Portland has played in awhile. So keeping that same XI for FCKC will help. And yes, that means leaving Tobin Heath and possibly Alex Morgan on the bench to start. Morgan is listed as day-to-day but will travel to Kansas City with that team, but it would be tough to factor her into the lineup even if she is healthy. And Heath does add an attacking dynamic to the team, but the Thorns as a whole haven’t seen vast improvements with her in the lineup. Portland is 2-1-3 with her starting. But if they trot out the same lineup as last weekend and have Heath and Morgan ready on the bench to add life into the match could be more beneficial in the long run.
Why FC Kansas City will win: To erase bad memories from Sunday. The Blues had the easiest road of any teams to get home field advantage throughout the playoffs. All Vlatko Andonovski’s team needed against Chicago was some sort of a result at home, a draw or win would get the job done. And it looked to be that way as well with a 1-1 stalemate with the Red Stars on the horizon. But for a late dagger from Chicago’s Jen Hoy in stoppage time means they only are guaranteed a home match through this round. That bitter taste from this past weekend may spur on the hosts to try and get an early lead and sustain pressure. Plus having the confidence of a 2-1-1 record against the Thorns this season and knowing this match up suits them well doesn’t hurt either.
What could hold FCKC back: The Injury Status of Leigh Ann Robinson. In the second half on Sunday, the ever-present outside back Leigh Ann Robinson went down with a knee injury and after trying to run it off, she had to come off the field. Robinson is one of the players the Blues did not want to have hurt going into the playoffs as she has been a fixture in the back since day one. FCKC does have depth to cover but they will do everything in their power to try and get Robinson fit for Saturday. If not, that might expose their midfield slightly as Merritt Mathias may shift back to defense and bring in a reserve. But that could weaken their presence out wide in the long run, so that will be something to keep an eye on.
Wild Card factor for both teams: The Weather. After a fairly cool weekend in Kansas, the heat is going to pick right back up in the 90s at game time. I’m a little confused why the league chose to hold this match in the day time where it could have held the daytime match in Rochester and have the nightcap be noticeably cooler in KC. But the fact is that will be a boiling pitch come 1pm on Saturday and could affect the pace of the match.
Semifinal Two: #4 seed Sky Blue FC vs. #1 seed Western New York Flash. Saturday 8pm ET
How Sky Blue could win: Wipe the Slate Clean It’s almost like 2009 WPS playoffs again, except the bit about Christie Rampone acting as player coach and playing while pregnant. Sky Blue backed into the playoffs off a string of bad results and a skeleton roster to choose from. After gaining 25 points from their first half of the season (8-2-1), their second half they have lost a few key players to season ending injuries, scored only 11 goals and have only gained 11 points from 11 matches (2-4-5). So yeah, it’s been pretty bad since the summer hit in North Jersey. But they can remind themselves that this is the playoffs and all you need to do is win two matches. The two wins can be ugly 1-0 grinding performances but as long as you win your first match, you get a shot at the title. If they get that mind set, the belief in accomplishing that goal could happen.
Why Sky Blue won’t win: Their Record against Western New York. 1-3-0. And if it wasn’t for an errant McCall Zerboni own goal in match one and Abby Wambach skying one inside the box late, it could very well be a clean sweep in the season series for the Flash. Sky Blue for some reason just does not match up well at all against the Flash, and to be honest, I haven’t put my finger on it. It just happens to be that way this year.
Why Western New York will win: The Comfort of Sahlen’s Stadium. If there was ever a team to have home field advantage throughout the playoffs and take advantage of it, it would be the Flash. In the Flash’s three championship seasons in three different leagues, they have played three of five playoff matches at Sahlen’s and won them all, albeit two wins were via spot kicks (BONUS Trivia Question: Where is the only other location the Flash franchise have played playoff matches? Winner gets an enthusiastic high five from me. And the clue is the location is in the Pacific Time zone). But this season particularly, Sahlen’s Stadium has been a fortress with the Flash going 8-1-2, best home record for any NWSL team. So playing under the bright lights, a massive field and a fan base that has been growing bigger for every match, that will be Western New York’s go-to in this playoff run.
If WNY don’t do this, it could become a lot more even: Break down Sky Blue through the center. The one thing about Sky Blue is that they are one of the better defensively shaped teams. They are tough to break down and can wear down opponents before launching counter attacks. They do allow teams sometimes to beat them via the wings but hold tight through the center. If the Flash can’t get it working up the middle, the game could very quickly become a chess-match, something that Sky Blue will be more than happy to play.
Best Rookie XI
This will be the first of three consecutive NWSL Best XI’s this column will reveal. And to preface this, I wasn’t in much favor of doing an all-Rookie XI because to be honest, since their was no pro league in the US last season, there could be a lot of people that qualify as a rookie. So similar to other leagues, I wanted to do a Best Young Player XI. So I took down all the players who are under-24 (same qualifications as Best Young Player awards) and made a list from that. I quickly realized that list included nearly half of the players in the NWSL. And it only got a little smaller when I added crazy stipulations to the concept so I scrapped the Best Young Player XI and conceded to a Best Rookie XI…with one twist. All players who were eligible for this must be playing this NWSL season as their first full pro season but would allow any player who played less than a quarter of another team’s schedule in years past since exhausting their NCAA eligibility (i.e. WPSL-Elite, USL W-League, etc. which means no Sydney Leroux, but you all will see her soon enough in a future Best XI). So with that being said, lets get to it (in a 4-5-1 with no real preference to specific positions, just a goalkeeper, defenders, midfielders and a forward)
GK: Adrianna Franch (Western New York). Played the most minutes of any goalkeeper in the league & had some of the best numbers as well. Could very well see her a USWNT lineup soon.
Def: Rachel Quon (Chicago). Brought her solid college game to the pros and transitioned very smoothly, a steady outside back for Chicago and featured in 19 matches this season.
Def: Kathryn Williamson (Portland). One of the surprises of this year’s rookie class. Started all 22 matches, handled the pressure of starting from day 1 and complimented Rachel Buehler very nicely in center back.
Def: Kendall Johnson (Sky Blue). Another defensive surprise. Started all 22 matches, had two assists and showed versatility at outside back, going forward but was stout defensively as well.
Def: Kristie Mewis (FC Kansas City). One of the two “partial rookies” (played in two Hyundai W-League matches for Canberra this winter). Still showed week in why she’s a future winger/outside back combo for USWNT.
Mid: Mana Shim (Portland). Best rookie story of the season. Made team via an open tryout then finished season with five goals (Tied second for rookies) and two assists. Became a fan favorite as well in Portland.
Mid: Mariah Noguiera (Boston). Did a lot of the unheralded hard work as a holding midfielder for Boston, but featured in 20 matches and scored three goals and had an assist.
Mid: Erika Tymrak (FC Kansas City). Once she was called into a starting role when USWNT allocations got called in, she never lost her spot. With her play, it gave FCKC the best midfield duo in NWSL along with Lauren Holiday. Scored six goals, had four assists and should be a future USWNT call-up.
Mid: Christine Nairn (Seattle). Had to do a lot more that what was asked of her in early part of season with Seattle but settled into a nice playmaker role as season went on. Led rookies with five assists (also tied for sixth in NWSL in assists) and had three goals.
Mid: Taylor Lytle (Sky Blue). Another exception to All-Rookie XI (played 90 minutes for Pali last season). But came out of nowhere to score a highlight reel 30 yard goal immediately after coming on field at Portland. Finished the season with four goals.
For: Renae Cuellar (Seattle). Scored five goals for FCKC in 11 matches, then traded to Seattle for back end of 2013. Slowed down after May but still ended up featuring in 18 matches and finished tied for second for goals among rookies.
Stay tuned next week for another OGM Best XI list.